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A 6.8 percent annual rate of return means that if all dividends are reinvested, the purchasing power of stocks has doubled, on average, every ten years over the past two centuries. This evidence shows that, over long periods of time, the price of stocks fully compensates stockholders for any inflation, as the real return on stocks since World War II is virtually identical to that prior to that war. At this stage of an economic recovery, it is not that unusual for the U.S. Federal Reserve to begin shifting policy and reducing liquidity.
“They have done a complete and very aggressive 180 in less than 12 months,” he said. “That kind of abrupt shift from the world’s most important central bank means that you’re going to get volatility.” The Fed is raising interest rates at the fastest pace in a generation, and as the cost of borrowing gets more expensive, the pain is intensifying. John Stoltzfus, the chief investment officer at Oppenheimer and Co., marveled at the market’s response. There are worrisome signs that inflation is becoming more entrenched, which will make it harder to contain.
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